Why Did the Tenge Fall?

I have read the National Bank's comment on the sharp change in the tenge's exchange rate against the US dollar.

Taken point by point, each of its arguments raises a number of questions:

1. The exchange rate moves up or down depending on a number of factors, first and foremost oil prices and the exchange rates of the main partner countries' currencies.

Why, then, did the tenge barely react to rising oil prices, yet respond to falling oil prices with such remarkable consistency?

And a second question: does the National Bank's purchasing of dollars have no effect whatsoever on the composite market exchange rate?

2. The exchange rate is also affected by domestic factors, such as budget allocations, tax payments and, of course, de-dollarization.

Here there are even more questions than answers.

If tax payments are the cause, their effect on the exchange rate would only be felt in August, since that is when the main taxes for the second quarter are paid. So how, in the current situation, did tax payments influence the exchange rate?

Budget allocations are usually earmarked for specific purposes and cannot be used for speculation in the market. Perhaps there is a small effect through imports of funds.

But the most astonishing point of all is this: how can de-dollarization weaken the tenge? After all, during de-dollarization the national currency should, presumably, strengthen!

3. Recently, the ruble has shown reduced sensitivity to the oil price; nevertheless, the ruble fell following the drop in oil prices.

I do not want to make unsubstantiated claims, so tomorrow I will specifically calculate the correlation for the "tenge–Brent" and "ruble–Brent" pairs. My sense is that the ruble's correlation will be far higher than the tenge's, because changes in oil prices mean not only downward movements but upward ones as well.

I would like to hear answers to these questions.