Galim Khussainov
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Economy and public policy · 1 min read

Comparing Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Translated from Russian with the help of AI. Original: Russian version

Isolated successful projects are not a measure of a country's performance: Kazakhstan has the stronger institutions and is pursuing more systemic reforms than Uzbekistan.

I increasingly hear Kazakhstan being compared with Uzbekistan. I am, of course, delighted that Uzbekistan's economy is undergoing enormous change. If Uzbekistan develops and prospers, Kazakhstan will benefit greatly, because neighboring countries have a strong influence on one another's economic prosperity.

However, favoring one country over the other on the basis of individual successful projects is the notorious survivorship bias, in which isolated successes are extrapolated to the entire economy. As a rule, successful projects carried out with the backing of the head of state are not systemic in nature and cannot be considered evidence of sound national policy, because a country like this relies more on manual control than on systemic governance.

We in Kazakhstan can be quite critical of our own country, because we want it to develop, but that does not mean nothing is happening here. In terms of institutional development, we have come a long way. The reforms under way in Kazakhstan are aimed mainly at institutional development, which is more effective for long-term growth.

I do not want to go deeply into a comparison of institutions, but on all international indices and indicators of institutional development, we are far ahead of Uzbekistan.

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