What Galim reads: 30 October 2026
The week's main economic theme was the President's Address allocating KZT 6.5 trillion from the National Fund to infrastructure; the Fed and the ECB held rates, and Brent rose above $117.
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Акорда
2026 Address: KZT 6.5trn from the National Fund for infrastructure, minimum wage to KZT 110k
The President instructed the government to allocate about KZT 6.5 trillion from the National Fund through end-2029 for an infrastructure modernisation plan, including KZT 1.5 trillion for social projects in 2026 and the first two months of 2027. The minimum wage will rise from KZT 85,000 to 110,000 on 1 January 2027, and a higher tax rate for owners of large fortunes was proposed for discussion.
Galim: I believe that building infrastructure is a necessity for our country rather than a wish: without infrastructure, economic growth will hit limits, and building it is solely the state's job. The state has three ways to fund infrastructure: the National Fund, borrowing and the budget. External borrowing is now financing the budget deficit, new commercial investment projects and private initiatives, while the budget's capacity is limited. That leaves only the National Fund for long-term investment. So what matters more is understanding how this money will be used. As I see it, the plan is to channel it through budget mechanisms. It might make sense, though, to consider funding through long-term infrastructure bonds, PPPs and funds, so that the investments are repayable and pay for themselves.
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LSM
National Bank cuts the base rate to 15.75% and expects no change before year-end
On 23 October the rate was cut from 16.25% to 15.75% as annual inflation slowed to 9.3%; the regulator called the probability of a further change before the end of 2026 low.
Galim: The base rate cut was expected; I had commented on it and my forecast fell within the range of the cut. In effect, the cut reflects slowing inflation in the country, but inflation is now slowing mostly against the backdrop of a significant strengthening of the tenge, rather than through expanding supply and shrinking demand. Time will tell how sustainable this disinflation is. That is why I think the National Bank signalled that it does not intend to cut the base rate any further this year.
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Forbes Kazakhstan
AERC cuts Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, sees budget deficit at 3.1% of GDP
In its October macroeconomic review, the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.6% and raised its estimate of the state budget deficit from 2.3% to 3.1% of GDP. The average inflation forecast was trimmed to 10.3% and the average exchange rate forecast to KZT 475.2 per dollar.
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БНС
Kazakhstan's industrial output up 2.9% in nine months, manufacturing up 8.6%
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the industrial production index for January-September 2026 was 102.9%, with output of KZT 51.9 trillion. Utilities (+12.4%) and manufacturing grew fastest, with machine building up 22.8%.
Galim: Industrial growth of only 2.9% is explained primarily by lower oil production, which accounts for a large share of industry. At the same time, manufacturing is growing well, but we need to look more closely at how sustainable that growth is, and whether it mostly reflects budget stimulus through government spending.
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Минсельхоз РК
Kazakhstan harvests 24.3m tonnes of grain, one of the largest crops in 15 years
The 2026 harvest campaign yielded 24.3 million tonnes of grain, surpassed only in two record years. Preliminary data show about 72% of soft wheat delivered to elevators meets class 3.
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Kursiv
Dollar falls to KZT 453.48 on KASE: the role of National Fund transfers
On 29 October the exchange rate fell by KZT 1.52 to 453.48 per dollar, with trading volume of USD 258.8 million. The article examines how National Fund transfers for the spending announced in the Address affect FX supply.
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Kursiv
Solidcore Resources: nine-month revenue up 83% to USD 1.6bn
Kazakhstan's largest gold miner, whose shares trade on AIX, increased third-quarter revenue by 12% to USD 602 million and output by 18% to 148,000 ounces of gold equivalent. The average realised gold price for nine months was USD 4,561 per ounce (+46%).
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ФРС США
Fed holds rate at 3.75–4%, two FOMC members vote for a hike
On 28 October the FOMC voted 10–2 to keep the target range unchanged, with the two dissenters preferring a 0.25 pp increase. The statement describes inflation as elevated and economic activity as expanding at a strong pace.
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ЕЦБ
ECB keeps deposit rate at 2.50%, flags risks from higher energy prices
On 29 October the Governing Council left the three key rates unchanged: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65% and marginal lending facility 2.90%. It noted that rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, and did not pre-commit to a rate path.
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The National
Brent ends October up about 15%, a fourth straight monthly gain, above $117
On 30 October Brent rose 2.4% to USD 117.64 a barrel, its highest since April, after incidents involving two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Over the month Brent gained about 15% and WTI about 12%.
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Forbes Kazakhstan
Week in review: Fed, ECB and BoJ pauses, oil near $115 and implications for Kazakhstan
A Forbes Kazakhstan analytical review examines late-October developments — rate holds by the Fed (3.75–4%), the ECB (2.5%) and the Bank of Japan (1.25%), oil near USD 115 and copper at about USD 14,560 a tonne — and what they mean for Kazakhstan as KZT 6.5 trillion is allocated from the National Fund.
The selection and short descriptions are prepared by AI from public sources; the comments are Galim's. Inclusion does not imply agreement; links lead to the original sources.